For app-to-app deep linking, how can Apple know the difference between an organic post and a paid link?

At this point, no one outside of Apple is familiar with Apple's backend compliance systems and enforcement plans. This means it's impossible to say whether Apple plans to implement automated technical verification to support this new policy (and if so, how they plan to distinguish between organic and paid traffic as a technical matter).

Our position (that paid ads are the scope of Apple's policy, and owned/organic sources are not) is based on our best reading of Apple policy, but we would always advise checking with your own team/counsel as needed.